Finally, something that matters...

Andy, I will take it on for the sake of argument. I suspect this was a lob for me anyway...

First, I expect the Lakers to win, as much as I hate to admit it. However, since I would like them to lose, I will discuss the small margin of error that could create an opportunity for the Pistons. Outside of major injuries to the Lakers, here are the benefits the Pistons have in this series: Match-ups, bench, youth, and MUCH better defense.

I will not even try to defend the chance that anyone on the Pistons can guard Shaq, but no team anywhere has, and several teams have challenged them regardless. Okur and Ben Wallace will do as well as anyone. They also have guys that can come in and hack..Rebraca and Darko...Rip, Billups, and Prince should, reasonably be able to keep Payton and nameless 5th starter/role player in check. The way they play team defense will frustrate Kobe, but he will get his points. I think Malone is an old hack who will have one good game in the series, but otherwise will be severely outplayed by Rasheed, who is playing his best basketball in years. Both benches are filled with no-name, youngsters, but I think Detroit's players buy-in to the team concept better than the lakers inexperienced bench. I give Youth to Pistons, because of the starters, Detroit has the younger players of the Big 4. Both teams come in well rested, so that should not be an issue...

The Lakers will lose if: Payton continues to be a non-factor, Kobe does not get Shaq the ball, if the scores stay around 70, Their role players don't play big, specifically Devean George, Derek Fisher, and Kareem Rush (each of whom has bailed them out once already), and Malone really does get out played by Wallace.

Actually, if any 3 of those 5 happens, the Lakers will be in trouble. Pistons defense will have to control games for them to have a chance. They want a slow game. Rip has to play as well as he has been and both Wallaces will have to play even better. If Billups comes out like he played earlier in the season, he has the ability to control either Payton or Kobe. I think he is better than Rip, but has not shown it lately...He had a couple triple doubles back in November/December...

posted by Dusty @ 9:56 AM